Ben, really enjoyed your deep dive on Apple’s strengths—your historical analogies are spot on and your device-moat argument is crystal clear. I’d push back, though, on the idea that proximity to hardware automatically crowns Apple as AI king.
Just look at Gmail. Google quietly turned it into an AI powerhouse across every platform—web, Android, iOS—by layering in Smart Compose, Smart Reply, Priority Inbox and now even generative-AI drafts. All that cross-device, cloud-first data lets Gmail learn and adapt in real time, without needing an Apple-branded machine.
That ubiquity and pace of iteration create a user experience so seamless that folks barely notice they’re using “AI.” And because it’s untethered from any single OS, it undercuts the notion that owning the handset is the only path to AI dominance.
Still, your framing of AI as the “App Store on steroids” is brilliant. You’ve given us a lot to chew on—thanks for sparking such a thought-provoking read.
I agree Google has an excellent user‑data moat. I’m bullish on the AI revolution working out very well for both companies. As software is dis-intermediated by AI, however, I think Apple has an advantage in proximity to the user and ability to steer the user towards an AI of its choice.
I think a salient data point is how Google, despite being far-and-away the most dominant search engine, pays Apple ~$20B a year to be iPhone's default search engine. To me this seems like a direct acknowledgement of the power Apple has to move consumers towards a different option by updating the home screen; one that I think is amplified in the realm of AI.
Justin Kan's famous line comes to mind: "First time founders obsess over product. Second time founders obsess over distribution." I feel as though Google is another sleeping giant that people are underestimating here, but I think Apple can play a role much like https://openrouter.ai/
That is a very intuitive article, but are Microsoft not actually closer to consumers, they own the desktop / laptop market, now most apple users still have to interact with a Microsoft OS in their daily working environment.
I think we really are comparing "Apples" and "oranges" here, apple don’t need to create from scratch they have their device market as stated, but they won’t be the AI winners, they will continue their device market share up until the device preference changes, I see this as a repeat of IBM Vs Microsoft, if you stick with the hardware you will lose when the hardware changes. To imagine smart phones being in vogue for the next 50 years is short sited.
Scott, great point. It's true that Microsoft is still the dominant OS on laptops / desktops.
For consumers though, smartphone use dominates laptop use and is an increasing share over overall traffic - a trend I expect to accelerate as AI shrinks the need for big-screen workflows. So I think Apple has the edge for consumer AI. But I definitely agree that Microsoft is extremely well-positioned for enterprise AI, where their data moat is huge.
Interesting point re device preference change. I wouldn't expect a total form-factor shift in the next few years (perhaps until we're ready to trade screens for brain implants?), but absolutely on a 50-year timeline I'd expect something totally new.
Ben, really enjoyed your deep dive on Apple’s strengths—your historical analogies are spot on and your device-moat argument is crystal clear. I’d push back, though, on the idea that proximity to hardware automatically crowns Apple as AI king.
Just look at Gmail. Google quietly turned it into an AI powerhouse across every platform—web, Android, iOS—by layering in Smart Compose, Smart Reply, Priority Inbox and now even generative-AI drafts. All that cross-device, cloud-first data lets Gmail learn and adapt in real time, without needing an Apple-branded machine.
That ubiquity and pace of iteration create a user experience so seamless that folks barely notice they’re using “AI.” And because it’s untethered from any single OS, it undercuts the notion that owning the handset is the only path to AI dominance.
Still, your framing of AI as the “App Store on steroids” is brilliant. You’ve given us a lot to chew on—thanks for sparking such a thought-provoking read.
Thanks Peter!
I agree Google has an excellent user‑data moat. I’m bullish on the AI revolution working out very well for both companies. As software is dis-intermediated by AI, however, I think Apple has an advantage in proximity to the user and ability to steer the user towards an AI of its choice.
I think a salient data point is how Google, despite being far-and-away the most dominant search engine, pays Apple ~$20B a year to be iPhone's default search engine. To me this seems like a direct acknowledgement of the power Apple has to move consumers towards a different option by updating the home screen; one that I think is amplified in the realm of AI.
Appreciate the thoughtful comment!
I was at a movie yesterday with my son and caught this pre-roll ad by Google: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=386Cw1vKOfI
I've never lived in a time where Google had to convince people to Google. So, perhaps you're right.
Justin Kan's famous line comes to mind: "First time founders obsess over product. Second time founders obsess over distribution." I feel as though Google is another sleeping giant that people are underestimating here, but I think Apple can play a role much like https://openrouter.ai/
100%, and also agree that Google is another sleeping giant here. Ownership of consumer touchpoints & data is a massive moat for driving value with AI.
That is a very intuitive article, but are Microsoft not actually closer to consumers, they own the desktop / laptop market, now most apple users still have to interact with a Microsoft OS in their daily working environment.
I think we really are comparing "Apples" and "oranges" here, apple don’t need to create from scratch they have their device market as stated, but they won’t be the AI winners, they will continue their device market share up until the device preference changes, I see this as a repeat of IBM Vs Microsoft, if you stick with the hardware you will lose when the hardware changes. To imagine smart phones being in vogue for the next 50 years is short sited.
Scott, great point. It's true that Microsoft is still the dominant OS on laptops / desktops.
For consumers though, smartphone use dominates laptop use and is an increasing share over overall traffic - a trend I expect to accelerate as AI shrinks the need for big-screen workflows. So I think Apple has the edge for consumer AI. But I definitely agree that Microsoft is extremely well-positioned for enterprise AI, where their data moat is huge.
Interesting point re device preference change. I wouldn't expect a total form-factor shift in the next few years (perhaps until we're ready to trade screens for brain implants?), but absolutely on a 50-year timeline I'd expect something totally new.